Poland Emerges as Top Army in Europe’s Security Landscape
Analysts trace this transformation back to a pivotal moment.
Poland’s view of potential threats shifted decisively following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“At that point, a clear strategic conclusion was reached: Poland must possess independent military capabilities – particularly in the land domain – to conduct a defensive war against Russia alone and, with allied support, be able to win,” said Jacek Tarocinski, chief military analyst at a Warsaw-based think tank.
Defense spending reflected this sense of urgency. In 2022, Poland allocated roughly 2.2% of its GDP to military purposes, a figure that more than doubled over the next two years. By 2024, expenditures rose to about 4.1% of GDP, totaling nearly $38 billion—levels not seen since the Cold War and among the highest proportion of national income across NATO members.
This rapid buildup positioned Poland as NATO’s third-largest military by personnel, surpassing most allies with over 216,000 active troops, following only the US and Türkiye.
Tarocinski described Western Europe’s post-Cold War reductions in military forces—often referred to as the “peace dividend”—as a strategic misstep, noting that they left many armies incapable of sustaining high-intensity conflict against a peer adversary.
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